The Open
Friday's jobs report was weak. The economy added just 29,000 jobs in September against roughly 85,000 expected, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wages grew 3% from a year ago, the slowest pace since 2021. Normally that pulls bond yields down. Instead the 10-year closed today at 5.31%.
Stocks didn't care. The S&P 500 (SPY) rose 0.67% and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) 0.88%. Nvidia closed at a record $238.90 after its board approved a $150 billion stock buyback, the largest ever.
Scorecard. Micron is back to $1,063.96, giving up its entire post-earnings gain. Accenture is at $195.05, down 8% from Thursday's close but still well above where it was before its report. One day doesn't settle either call.
Featured
Nu Holdings (NU) — $15.18, +13.0%
The setup: Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on Sunday. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the former president, took about 47% of the vote, ahead of President Lula at 45% and well ahead of the polls. Investors read it as a shift toward tighter government spending and more business-friendly policy. The Brazil ETF (EWZ) jumped 12.5% today, and the Brazilian real gained about 4% against the dollar.
Nu Holdings, the parent of Nubank, is the purest way to own that move. It rose 13% and is up 24% in five days.
The number that matters: 33%. That's Nu's return on equity last quarter. Most big banks are happy with 15%. Nubank has 139 million customers, 118 million of them in Brazil, and earned $1.1 billion last quarter, up 49% from a year earlier.
The thesis: Today's move was about Brazil, not Nubank. The business was already working before Sunday. The election just shrank the discount investors apply to anything Brazilian. At about 17 times its latest quarterly profit, annualized, Nu still trades 20% below its 52-week high of $18.98. But the October 25 runoff is polling close to even, so the political discount could return just as fast.
What kills this thesis: Credit quality slips. Nu's share of loans more than 90 days late was 6.9% last quarter. If that climbs above 7.5% when it reports in November, growth is coming at the cost of bad loans, and no election result fixes that.
Movers & Watchlist
Ticker | Move | Last | Take |
|---|---|---|---|
NU | +13.03% | $15.18 | See Featured. |
MELI | +9.67% | $1,860.61 | MercadoLibre rode the same Brazil rally. |
SHOP | +5.76% | $160.11 | Shopify led the U.S. e-commerce names. |
DKNG | +5.43% | $19.60 | DraftKings bounced. |
APP | +5.13% | $281.97 | AppLovin snapped its losing streak. |
IONQ | −1.83% | $42.97 | The weakest name on a green day. |
ARM | −1.49% | $302.90 | Slipped even as Nvidia set a record. |
RKLB | −1.22% | $73.02 | Rocket Lab gave back a little. |
SMCI | −1.14% | $43.19 | AI servers lagged the AI chip leader. |
MU | −1.02% | $1,063.96 | Back to where it was before earnings. |
Quick Hits
Bolsonaro beats expectations in Brazil presidential vote, will face Lula in runoff — The background on the election that moved Brazilian stocks. The runoff is October 25.
Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000 — Revisions also cut 60,000 jobs from the prior two months.
Nvidia boosts share buyback by record $150 billion — That brings its total buyback capacity to $235 billion.
AI researcher warns 'we are racing to build and grow our own adversary' in NYC hearing — Executives from the major AI labs testified before the New York City Council.
P.S. Hit reply and tell me: do you own any international stocks, or do you stick to the U.S.? I read every reply.
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